Overview
- Brookings estimates 2025 net migration between –295,000 and –10,000, with fewer new arrivals outweighing removals.
- The report cites stepped-up enforcement, suspended humanitarian pathways, and fewer temporary visas under the Trump administration as key factors.
- Brookings pegs 2025 removals at 310,000–315,000, far below Department of Homeland Security officials’ public claim of more than 600,000.
- The locus of enforcement shifted in 2025, with most removals initiated by Customs and Border Protection from the interior rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
- The authors expect net migration to remain very low or negative in 2026, and say funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would likely enable higher removals and weigh on employment, GDP, and consumer spending, including a projected $60–$110 billion spending decline across 2025–2026.