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4w ago

U.S. Recession Risks Grow as Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty Persist

Economists estimate recession probabilities between 36% and 50%, with mixed signals from economic indicators and a strong labor market offering a complex outlook.

A customer shops for eggs at a grocery store in Chicago on March 12, 2025.
FILE PHOTO: A screen displays the Dow Jones Industrial Average at market close, after Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump became U.S. president-elect, at the New York Stock Exchange, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024.

Overview

  • Recent surveys place the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 between 36% and nearly 50%, reflecting rising concerns among economists and analysts.
  • President Trump's tariff policies have contributed to economic instability, shaking consumer confidence and fueling market volatility.
  • The U.S. economy is experiencing a 'slow patch,' with mixed signals from consumer spending, inflation, and unemployment data keeping recession predictions uncertain.
  • Financial experts recommend preparing for potential downturns by reducing high-interest debt, building emergency savings, and diversifying investment portfolios.
  • Despite recession fears, the labor market remains relatively strong, with unemployment rates low in some areas, providing a counterbalance to economic anxiety.