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U.S. Ramps Up Rare Earth Pacts as China’s Controls Near Take Effect

Analysts warn that unwinding dependence on Chinese refining and magnets will take years despite fresh U.S. agreements.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump finalized a U.S.–Japan framework to secure critical minerals, with plans to finance priority projects within six months, coordinate stockpiles, and streamline permitting.
  • Malaysia said it will keep its ban on exporting raw rare earths to prioritize domestic processing even after signing a U.S. critical-minerals deal that promotes cooperation and trade facilitation.
  • China’s expanded export controls on rare earths, processing equipment, and related technologies are set to start taking effect from November 8, increasing leverage in supply chains ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
  • U.S. officials indicated a threatened 100% tariff hike on Chinese imports is on hold following a framework for trade talks, and they signaled hopes Beijing could defer enforcement of some mineral controls.
  • Goldman Sachs estimates it could take about a decade to build new mines and roughly five years to add refineries, with China currently handling around 92% of rare-earth refining and 98% of magnet production.