Overview

• U.S. GDP for April–June was revised up to a 3.3% annualized pace, with personal consumption rising 1.6% and a 29.8% collapse in imports adding more than five percentage points to growth, according to the Commerce Department.
• Underlying U.S. components showed softness as private investment fell 13.8% and federal spending declined at a 4.7% annualized rate in the quarter.
• Canada’s economy contracted at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q2, led by a 7.5% drop in exports including a 24.7% plunge in cars and light trucks, per Statistics Canada.
• Following Canada’s data, market odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 17 rose to 48%, with the policy rate unchanged at 2.75% in recent meetings.
• Mexico’s INEGI reported Q1 GDP up 7.7% year over year, and Banxico raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6% within a 0.1%–1.1% range, citing limited export impact from U.S. tariffs so far.