Overview

• BEA’s third estimate shows GDP rose at a 3.8% annualized pace in Q2, lifted by falling imports and firmer consumer spending after firms front‑loaded purchases before tariffs.
• OECD’s interim outlook warns the full impact of higher duties is still unfolding, projecting global growth of about 3.2% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
• The OECD sees U.S. growth slowing to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, citing elevated tariff rates and other factors as key drags.
• Reporting indicates the average U.S. duty rate climbed to roughly 19.5% in August, with companies absorbing costs, delaying expansion and reworking supply chains.
• Labor indicators have softened and central banks have begun easing, while Trump’s reciprocal tariffs face U.S. Supreme Court arguments in early November.