Overview
- The U.S. military drawdown is underway and will remove the last remaining troops and air-defense systems from northern Iraq by Sept. 30, officials say.
- Major Iran-backed militias including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada have publicly rejected handing over weapons and set political conditions for any arms talks.
- Baghdad has linked the coalition exit to a push to centralize ‘dynamic weapons’ under Popular Mobilization Forces command, but government statements have been mixed about whether Sept. 30 is a hard deadline or a start to negotiations.
- Kurdish leaders and analysts warn the removal of U.S. air defenses will leave the Kurdistan region more exposed to cross-border and internal attacks, prompting Baghdad to seek new systems from South Korea, Turkey and the U.S.
- The pullout creates short-term risks for regional security because militias retain strike capability against U.S.-linked and regional targets and because centralizing or seizing long-range weapons will require politically fraught moves by Baghdad.