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US Prepared for Potential Russian Nuclear Strike in 2022, Averted by International Outreach

Efforts from countries including India and China played a key role in preventing a nuclear crisis amid the Ukraine conflict.

A member of a demining team works to clear mines and unexploded ordnance from the side of the main road leading to Kherson City in November 2022.
A member of the Ukrainian military, 59th Brigade, waits to take on new supplies before moving to a new position in November 2022 in Kherson, Ukraine.
“The Return of Great Powers" publishes March 12.

Overview

  • US officials revealed that in late 2022, the US prepared rigorously for a potential Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, marking the first such preparation since World War II.
  • Outreach from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other countries played a crucial role in averting a potential nuclear crisis.
  • The Biden administration feared Russia might use tactical nuclear weapons as Ukrainian forces advanced, particularly in the region of Kherson.
  • Russia circulated a false narrative about a Ukrainian dirty bomb, raising concerns of it being a pretext for a nuclear attack.
  • US and allies, including non-allies like China and India, worked closely to develop contingency plans and communicate warnings to Russia.