Overview

• The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) projects electricity consumption this summer will hit a four-year high due to extreme heat and increased demand from AI data centers.
• Regions including Texas, the Midwest, New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southwest are identified as having higher risks of power shortfalls under abnormal conditions like low renewable output or heatwaves.
• Retirement of coal and gas plants is outpacing the addition of new, firm generation, adding strain to the grid despite growth in solar and battery storage capacity.
• Western and southeastern states face a 40–60% likelihood of above-average temperatures, with the rest of the country also at elevated risk of heat-driven demand spikes.
• Operational mitigations, such as rolling blackouts, may be required during peak stress periods to maintain grid stability, according to FERC's latest outlook.