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U.S. Population Could Decline in 2025 as Net Migration Plunges, Analyses Warn

Falling net migration under stricter enforcement threatens to outpace natural increase.

Federal agents stand at a checkpoint operated by the Metropolitan Police Department and federal agencies, including officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Homeland Security Investigations (HSI), on Georgia Avenue in the northern part of Washington, Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed in his second term to deport “millions” of immigrants.
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Overview

  • AEI projects 2025 net immigration could range from about 115,000 to negative 525,000, a drop from roughly 2.8 million last year.
  • Pew’s analysis of Census data finds the foreign-born population fell by about 1.4 million in the first half of 2025 as departures outnumbered arrivals.
  • DHS says about 1.6 million migrants have voluntarily left since President Trump took office, with more than 359,000 arrests and 332,000 deportations in the first 200 days.
  • Data firm Aterio, incorporating lower migration, estimates the 2025 population at roughly 339.1 million versus the Census Bureau’s 340.1 million at the end of 2024.
  • Economists warn a smaller inflow could shrink the working-age labor force and strain social programs, while researchers note current figures are provisional and vary by source.