Overview

• Estonia reports three Russian MiG-31s entered its airspace near Vaindloo for about twelve minutes, were intercepted by NATO jets, and flew without flight plans or transponders, which Moscow denies.
• At a UN Security Council session, US Ambassador Mike Waltz said the United States would defend every inch of NATO territory, and President Donald Trump signaled support for Baltic and Polish allies if Russia escalates.
• A joint declaration by the EU and 49 countries condemned Russia’s actions as a dangerous escalation and cited similar incidents in Poland and Romania as part of a pattern.
• NATO’s North Atlantic Council will meet under Article 4 on Tuesday after Estonia’s request, as Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Warsaw is prepared to shoot down aircraft that enter Polish airspace and pose a threat.
• Allied capitals debate tougher rules of engagement—including potential shootdowns—while others urge legal caution, and the tensions unfold as Ukraine reports localized counteroffensive gains near Pokrowsk and continues long-range strikes inside Russia.