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U.S. Payrolls Beat Forecasts as Unemployment Falls to 4.1%

The surprise October hiring gain raises the odds of a December Fed rate increase because wage growth remains below inflation.

Overview

  • The U.S. added 165,000 payroll jobs in October, a much larger gain than economists expected, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1 percent.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised August and September jobs upward by a combined 84,000, boosting the recent trend in hiring.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 3.1 percent year over year, which is below recent inflation and means most workers are still losing ground in real terms.
  • Financial markets reacted quickly with Treasury yields rising and traders raising the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.
  • By contrast, Canada lost 4,700 jobs in October and saw its unemployment rate rise to 6.7 percent, a pattern that eases near-term pressure for Bank of Canada rate increases.