Overview

• Payrolls increased by 125,000 in May, down from a three-month average of 162,000, and the unemployment rate held at 4.2%.
• Businesses point to shifting White House trade policies, including the doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs, as they curb hiring and investment.
• Job openings fell to 7.1 million in April, the lowest level since late 2020, signaling softening labor demand.
• Recent consumer surveys show growing household restraint, coinciding with a second consecutive month of declining auto sales.
• The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at 4.25%–4.50% and says it will stay data-dependent until trade and tax policy effects become clearer.