Lula Holds Narrow Lead as Presidential Race Remains Volatile

Overview

• Late‑July nationwide surveys show a close contest between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Lula up about 42% in BTG/Nexus and Flávio near the low‑30s.
• BTG/Nexus recorded a sharp rebound for Lula among Bolsa Família beneficiaries, who now report roughly 70% support after a 12‑point rise in two weeks.
• Poder360’s aggregation of state polls finds Lula leading in 12 states and Flávio ahead in seven, giving Lula a territorial advantage that concentrates strength in the Northeast.
• Genial/Quaest polling in Minas Gerais shows technically tied second‑round matchups involving Lula, Flávio and Romeu Zema, underscoring the decisive role of that large electorate.
• Campaigns have responded to the swings with intensified ground operations, notably Lula’s recent visits to Rio de Janeiro and scientific forums, while pollsters warn short‑term movements remain within margins of error.