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U.S. Overdose Deaths Plunge as Fentanyl Supply Is Disrupted

Researchers link the downturn to a supply shock tied to tighter controls on Chinese precursor chemicals.

Overview

  • CDC data show national overdose deaths fell from more than 111,000 in August 2023 to about 69,000 by August 2025, reversing a decades-long rise.
  • DEA reporting notes fentanyl seizures dropped from 29,000 kilograms in 2023 to 23,000 in 2024 and purity declined, with Mexico-based labs struggling to source key precursors.
  • San Francisco recorded 621 overdose deaths in 2025, roughly level with 2024 after a sharp drop from 810 in 2023, pointing to a recent plateau.
  • Most states reported declines, though Arizona, Hawaii, Kansas, New Mexico, and North Dakota saw increases, while Maryland and Baltimore City posted substantial reductions.
  • Clinicians and officials warn risks remain as dealers mix in sedatives like xylazine and medetomidine, even as wider access to naloxone and treatment likely helped reduce fatalities.