Overview
- The Commerce Department sent Nvidia's H200 export license applications to State, Energy and Defense for input, starting a review window of about 30 days with the final decision expected from President Donald Trump.
- Nvidia shares rose roughly 3% to 3.8% intraday on the report, while AMD, Broadcom and Micron also advanced, and the FTC issued a notice clearing Nvidia’s $5 billion investment in Intel.
- Analysts kept broadly positive stances: Bernstein reiterated Outperform and a $275 target and said Nvidia trades at about a 13% discount to the SOX near 25x forward earnings, as Truist lifted its target to $275 and Tigress to $350.
- Key uncertainties persist, including how a proposed 25% government fee would be documented and whether Chinese buyers will accept the chips after prior guidance discouraged purchases.
- Nvidia remains the central supplier to AI data centers and reported a record $57 billion fiscal Q3 revenue, but near-term access to Chinese demand now hinges on the licensing outcome.