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U.S. October Payrolls Surprise, Canada Job Market Slips

Markets moved to price a December Federal Reserve rate hike as the stronger U.S. data tightened labor conditions while Canada’s weaker report reduced near‑term pressure on the Bank of Canada.

Overview

  • On Friday, the U.S. added 165,000 nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1 percent, beating the roughly 65,000 jobs analysts had forecast.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised August and September payrolls up by a combined 84,000 jobs, lifting the recent three‑month average and boosting signs of hiring momentum.
  • Average hourly earnings rose about 3.1 percent year‑over‑year in October, which remained below headline inflation and means most workers continue to face real wage losses.
  • Markets reacted quickly as Treasury yields rose and the probability of a December Fed rate increase climbed substantially after the report.
  • Canada’s October Labour Force Survey showed a net loss of 4,700 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, a result that eases short‑term pressure on further Bank of Canada tightening.