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U.S. November Retail Sales Top Forecasts, Point to Firm Q4 Momentum

The upside surprise supports firmer fourth-quarter GDP estimates.

Overview

  • The Commerce Department reported retail sales rose 0.6% in November, beating a 0.4% forecast, after October was revised to a 0.1% decline.
  • Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, increased 0.4% and align closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.
  • A rebound in motor vehicle purchases helped lift November’s results as households also increased spending in other categories.
  • The Census Bureau released the figures later than usual as it caught up from delays tied to a 43‑day federal government shutdown.
  • Spending gains are being led by higher‑income households, and the retail figures are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.