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U.S. Murders on Pace for Record One-Year Drop in 2025

The estimate comes from a 570‑agency real‑time index, with FBI confirmation expected next year.

Overview

  • Crime analyst Jeff Asher’s review of Real‑Time Crime Index data shows a 19.8% year‑over‑year decline in homicides through October, the steepest annual fall on record.
  • The index logged 5,912 murders from January to October 2025, down from 7,369 in the same period of 2024 and 8,520 in 2023, compared with a 2021 peak of 10,016.
  • Other violent‑crime measures also fell nationwide, including motor vehicle thefts down 23.2%, robberies down 18.3%, and aggravated assaults down 7.5%.
  • Large jurisdictions reported sizable drops—Chicago nearly 28%, New York City and Memphis near 20%, Los Angeles County nearly 19%, New Orleans 7.5%, and Washington, D.C. nearly 28%—though a few places, such as Gilbert, Arizona, and Johnston County, North Carolina, saw sharp increases.
  • Mass killings reached their lowest level since 2006, and separate Gun Violence Archive figures show shootings down 17% with fatal shootings down 13%, while reporting notes no proven causal link between federal crackdowns and the declines.