Overview
- An analysis of the Real-Time Crime Index by Jeff Asher shows murders down nearly 20% year over year, with 5,912 killings recorded from January to October 2025 versus 7,369 in the same period of 2024.
- Other offenses also fell, including motor vehicle thefts (23.2%), robberies (18.3%) and aggravated assaults (7.5%), while mass killings were at their lowest level since 2006.
- Large drops were reported in major cities, including roughly 28% in Chicago and Washington, D.C., nearly 20% in New York City and Memphis, about 19% in Los Angeles County and 7.5% in New Orleans.
- A small number of jurisdictions saw sharp percentage increases, with Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, each posting 600% year-over-year rises in the index.
- The White House is crediting federal crackdowns and National Guard deployments, though reporters and researchers say there is no clear evidence of causation and caution that the trend may not continue into 2026.