Overview
- Mortgage Bankers Association data show the 30‑year contract rate fell to 6.25% in the week ended Jan. 2, the lowest since September 2024; the jumbo rate slipped to 6.32%.
- Total mortgage applications dropped 9.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis from two weeks earlier, with purchase applications down 6% and refinance applications down 14% but still up about 133% from a year ago.
- Daily surveys place 30‑year averages near 6% (Zillow at 5.99%, Mortgage News Daily around 6.19%, HousingWire at 6.37%), with rates holding in a narrow range and rarely dipping below 6%.
- Market pricing suggests low odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January, as traders watch Friday’s jobs report and next week’s inflation reading for direction.
- Analysts cite tighter mortgage‑Treasury spreads—helped by increased GSE purchases of mortgage‑backed securities—as supportive for rates, while separate U.K. reports highlight about 69,000 households facing sharp payment increases as five‑year fixes reset.