Overview
- Freddie Mac’s survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.19% for the week of Dec. 4, down from 6.23% a week earlier and below 6.69% a year ago.
- The average 15-year fixed rate fell to 5.44%, while consumer-facing averages from Zillow show typical 30-year purchase offers near 5.99% and refinance quotes around 6.72% for 30-year and 5.81% for 15-year terms.
- CME FedWatch places the probability of a Dec. 10 Federal Reserve rate cut at just under 90%, yet 2025 patterns show mortgage rates often move before cuts and can drift higher afterward.
- Treasury market swings drove rate volatility this week, with a 10-year yield spike after Bank of Japan signals followed by moderation as U.S. data rolled in.
- Labor conditions complicated the picture as initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, and housing economists expect only incremental mortgage-rate relief into 2026 with modest affordability gains.