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U.S. Mortgage Rates Drop to 15-Month Low as 2026 Opens

Falling Treasury yields after late-2025 Fed cuts are feeding through to mortgages.

Overview

  • Surveys put the 30-year fixed near 6%—Zillow at 5.99% and Freddie Mac at 6.15%, the lowest since 2024—with 15-year loans around 5.4%.
  • Refinance offers remain higher than purchase rates, with Zillow showing 6.67% for a 30-year refi and 5.64% for a 15-year refi.
  • The Fed trimmed rates three times from September to December 2025, totaling 75 basis points, helping pull down long-term yields that shape mortgage pricing.
  • Freddie Mac’s Sam Khater called the latest drop encouraging for buyers, though many homeowners remain locked into cheaper existing loans, limiting for-sale supply.
  • Markets anticipate two quarter-point Fed cuts in 2026, while Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a wait-and-see stance on further easing.