Overview
- Freddie Mac reports the 30-year fixed average at 6.18% this week, with the 15-year at 5.50%, holding near 2025 lows.
- Mortgage applications fell 5.0% for the week ending Dec. 19, with purchases down 4% week over week and the refinance share edging up to 59.1%, according to MBA.
- Industry economists expect mortgage rates to hover between 6% and 6.5% through 2026, with national home prices broadly flat and slightly negative by late 2026.
- Rates eased from above 7% earlier in 2025 as Treasury yields and mortgage spreads declined, reinforcing that mortgage pricing tracks long-term bonds more than Fed moves.
- Inventory is higher than last year in many markets, offering buyers more options, but affordability gains remain limited by elevated prices and the lock‑in effect on potential sellers.