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U.S. Midterm Loss Sends Argentina’s Risk Premium Higher as Coalition Rift Widens

Markets and business groups now question future U.S. credit support, raising pressure on a divided ruling bloc and the 2027 outlook.

Overview

  • Donald Trump’s midterm defeat has prompted U.S.-linked business groups to warn that Washington’s ability to offer financial backing to Argentina could shrink, increasing political and financing uncertainty for the Milei government.
  • The JP Morgan country-risk index jumped past 900 to about 925 on Thursday, a move that signals acute investor concern about Argentina’s ability to access credit and manage debt costs.
  • Senator Patricia Bullrich has publicly asserted greater independence from President Javier Milei by meeting with her Senate bloc and pushing a gambling-prevention bill that aligns her with Church leaders, a stance she says did not cross any institutional line.
  • Judicial pressure has resurfaced after the Cámara Federal de Casación Penal agreed to review the exclusion of querellantes in the $LIBRA case, creating a procedural path that could reopen the probe that had cleared Milei and his sister.
  • Regional and diplomatic setbacks have added to the strain: a Paraguayan ally resigned after a bank collapse that cost savers their access to deposits, and the U.S. ambassador publicly reaffirmed Washington’s commitment in an effort to calm markets.