Overview
- Preliminary Census Bureau data analyzed by the Pew Research Center indicate a net drop of more than 1.2 million immigrant workers from January through July, spanning both lawful residents and people without legal status.
- Reporting links the decline to stepped-up immigration enforcement and a sharp fall in illegal border crossings under President Trump, even as Pew notes the overall immigrant population has started to recede from a 2023 peak.
- Worker shortages and disruptions are being reported in agriculture and construction, including wasted crops in Texas and smaller farm crews in California, while major California metros have posted notable construction job losses.
- Economists warn of supply-side strains and inflation risks, with Oxford Economics projecting slower net immigration in coming years and California research estimating large GDP exposure if deportations and tighter policies persist.
- Pew researchers highlight measurement caveats, and industry groups warn health care could be squeezed because immigrants account for roughly 43% of home health aides.