Overview

• Private employers added 54,000 jobs in August, well below forecasts, while announced layoffs rose 39% to 85,979 for the month, according to ADP and Challenger data.
• Job openings fell to 7.181 million in July, and for the first time since the pandemic there were more unemployed people than available positions, the Labor Department reported.
• ISM’s services index climbed to 52.0 in August but its services employment gauge stayed in contraction at 46.5 as prices remained elevated, and manufacturing contracted for a sixth month with a 48.7 PMI.
• Economists expect Friday’s BLS report to show roughly 75,000 payroll gains with unemployment near 4.3%, a backdrop that has investors leaning toward a rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 16–17 meeting.
• The report will be the first since President Trump fired the BLS commissioner after July’s weak print, and next week’s preliminary benchmark revision could subtract hundreds of thousands of jobs from prior totals.