Overview
- Initial filings for unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended December 27, beating the 220,000 consensus.
- The Labor Department released the report a day early due to the New Year's holiday.
- Continuing claims declined by 47,000 to 1.866 million for the week ended December 20, though levels remain above a year ago and align with weaker labor perceptions in Conference Board surveys.
- A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago tracker points to a 4.6% unemployment rate in December, matching November's four-year high.
- Recent readings face holiday-season adjustment noise and residual shutdown distortions, while the Fed's December 25-basis-point cut to 3.50%–3.75% is likely on hold pending clearer labor and inflation data.