Overview

• The July JOLTS report showed openings fell to 7.18 million while about 7.24 million people were unemployed, the first overlap since 2021.
• Hiring was modest at 5.31 million and layoffs rose to 1.81 million in July, with June figures revised to show weaker conditions than first reported.
• ADP estimated private payrolls rose by just 54,000 in August as Challenger announced 85,979 job cuts and weekly initial claims ticked up to 237,000.
• Economists expect Friday’s government report to show roughly 75,000 new jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, a setup that could nudge the Fed toward cutting rates on Sept. 16–17.
• Scrutiny of labor data intensified after steep payroll revisions and the firing of the BLS commissioner, while sector details showed a 181,000 drop in health care openings and a 110,000 decline in retail.