Overview
- Revisions showed June payrolls fell by 13,000, the first monthly job loss since 2020, and three-month hiring has averaged roughly 29,000.
- Hiring is narrowly concentrated in health care (+46,800 in August) while goods-producing industries keep cutting jobs, with manufacturing down 78,000 this year.
- Black unemployment climbed to 7.5%, the highest since October 2021, and youth joblessness rose, signaling broader labor‑market stress.
- Analysts increasingly link the slowdown to sweeping tariffs, tighter immigration and heightened uncertainty, as the administration asks the Supreme Court to review its tariff authority under the IEEPA.
- Weak labor data have increased market odds of a September rate cut, even as inflation edges higher and the White House’s firing of the BLS commissioner fuels concerns about statistical independence.