Overview

• Economists project nonfarm payrolls rose by about 125,000 in May, marking a sharp pullback from April’s 177,000 gain.
• The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%, matching April’s level for the third consecutive month.
• Average hourly earnings are forecast to climb 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% annually, reflecting ongoing wage pressures.
• ADP data show private payrolls added just 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest since March 2023, and initial jobless claims have edged higher.
• Federal Reserve policymakers intend to maintain the federal funds rate until at least September as they monitor inflation risks tied to tariffs and evolving labor trends.