Overview
- U.S. strikes on Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz triggered a jump in oil and a stronger dollar on Wednesday and pushed bitcoin down about 1% into the low $62,000s while ether slipped below $1,800.
- Institutional spot demand has returned in fits and starts, with U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reporting large inflows including a $265.7 million session, but flows remain uneven and have not erased recent June outflows.
- On‑chain measures show mixed signals: bitcoin metrics point to quiet, selective accumulation that has not yet flipped decisively bullish, while ethereum has seen exchange inflows and holder distribution that raise the risk of selling pressure.
- Derivatives activity and market conviction remain weak after open interest fell sharply from October 2025 highs and June produced large liquidations totaling roughly a billion dollars, leaving rebounds vulnerable to reversal.
- Traders are watching key technical floors and catalysts for the next move, with bitcoin needing to hold roughly $60,000 to keep the recovery intact, ethereum facing support near $1,700 to $1,650, and Fed commentary or further geopolitical escalation likely to drive the next swing.