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U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Reciprocal Strikes and Threats Escalate

The breakdown raises the risk of wider war by leaving control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

Overview

  • This week attacks hit three Qatari and Saudi commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, provoking U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S.-linked positions in Gulf states.
  • Iran’s health ministry reported at least 17 killed and 115 wounded in the U.S. strikes, and Iran buried its late supreme leader Ali Khamenei after days of nationwide mourning.
  • President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire over while saying talks will continue and ordered U.S. forces to prepare strikes if Iran attempts to assassinate him, posting explicit threats of overwhelming retaliation.
  • Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed revenge for his father’s killing and Tehran has insisted it will control transit through the Strait of Hormuz and may levy fees for passage.
  • Qatar and Oman have resumed shuttle diplomacy and Iran’s foreign minister traveled to Muscat for talks, but core disputes over Hormuz access, shipping attacks, and Iran’s enriched uranium remain unresolved and keep escalation risks high.