Overview
- U.S. intelligence now judges that Moscow may try limited, deniable operations—cyberattacks, sabotage, drone or cruise strikes, or small ground incursions—to probe NATO cohesion in a near-term window from this autumn through 2029.
- Officials and reporting point to recent reconnaissance incidents, including a cruise missile falling in Poland and drone incursions in Romania, as examples of actions that could test alliance reactions.
- Analysts say the moves would aim to measure U.S. and NATO responses without triggering full-scale war and likely be calibrated to stay below NATO’s threshold for collective armed response.
- Policy makers face a harder choice because U.S. stocks of precision strike munitions and air-defense interceptors have been drawn down by supplies to Ukraine and heavy use of systems such as Patriot missiles, according to CSIS estimates.
- If the threat picture holds, NATO members will need clearer plans for graduated deterrence and faster resupply of key missiles and interceptors to avoid encouraging opportunistic provocations.