U.S. Intelligence Keeps Iran Bomb Timeline at Up to One Year

Overview

• U.S. assessments reported by Reuters say Iran could build a nuclear weapon within a year, a view that has not changed since last year.
• The IAEA cannot account for about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which can be turned into weapons-grade with further processing, and inspections remain suspended.
• Recent U.S. attacks have targeted conventional military sites since Feb. 28, while Israel hit some nuclear facilities, yet analysts say the expected timeline did not shrink.
• Officials are weighing riskier steps that include possible ground raids to recover enriched uranium believed to be stored in deep tunnels.
• Before June 2025, U.S. intelligence put Iran’s timeline at three to six months, then revised it to roughly nine months to one year after strikes damaged key enrichment plants.