Overview

• U.S. July CPI held at 2.7% y/y with a 0.2% m/m rise and core inflation climbed to 3.1% y/y on a 0.3% monthly increase.
• Equities rallied and Fed-funds futures priced the likelihood of a 25 bp rate cut in September at over 90% after the report.
• Analysts warn that recent reciprocal tariffs have had muted pass-through to consumer prices but could push inflation higher in coming months if businesses can no longer absorb costs.
• The dollar index and 10-year Treasury yield eased following the release as traders shifted into risk assets on a softer Fed outlook.
• In Argentina, private consultancies and the central bank’s market survey project July CPI of 1.8–1.9%, with INDEC’s official figure due Wednesday at 16:00.