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yesterday

U.S. Inflation Cools to 2.7% in November in Shutdown-Delayed CPI

The reading arrives with caveats from missing October data plus a shortened November collection.

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President Donald Trump pinned the country's economic woes on the Democrats in an address to the nation on Dec. 17.
A shopper walks down an aisle in an Albertsons supermarket after a U.S. judge blocked the pending $25 billion merger of U.S. grocery chains Kroger and Albertsons, siding with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, in Seattle, Washington, U.S. December 10, 2024. REUTERS/David Ryder

Overview

  • Headline CPI rose 2.7% year over year in November versus ~3.1% expected, with core inflation easing to 2.6% from 3.0% in September.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October CPI after the 43‑day shutdown and provided no standard month‑to‑month figures, noting a two‑month increase of 0.2%.
  • Stocks climbed and Treasury yields fell on the downside surprise as traders slightly raised odds of early‑2026 rate cuts, though the Fed is waiting for December CPI and core PCE before adjusting policy.
  • Economists urged caution given potential bias from late‑month price collection and alternative sources; Fed officials signaled a skeptical read of this single print.
  • Tariff effects appeared more muted than feared with limited goods inflation, while services and shelter remained key pressures and electricity costs rose about 6.9% over the past year.