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US Inflation Accelerates as Tariffs Bite; India’s CPI Falls to Six-Year Low

Falling food prices pushed India’s CPI to its lowest in over six years, freeing the RBI to pursue further monetary easing.

Customers buy fruits and vegetables at an open air evening market in Ahmedabad, India, August 21, 2023. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo
A teller counts U.S. dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan/ File Photo
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Overview

  • Tariff-driven costs lifted US CPI by 0.3% in June, reversing a recent slowdown and pushing year-over-year inflation to 2.7%.
  • Core inflation climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% annually, with shelter costs the leading contributor to the monthly gain.
  • Economists project most tariff-induced price rises will materialize in July and August as firms exhaust pre-tariff inventories.
  • Markets now broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50% at the upcoming policy meeting.
  • India’s consumer inflation eased to 2.10% in June, with food prices contracting 1.06%, giving the RBI scope for further rate cuts.