Overview

• Tariff-driven costs lifted US CPI by 0.3% in June, reversing a recent slowdown and pushing year-over-year inflation to 2.7%.
• Core inflation climbed 0.2% on the month and 2.9% annually, with shelter costs the leading contributor to the monthly gain.
• Economists project most tariff-induced price rises will materialize in July and August as firms exhaust pre-tariff inventories.
• Markets now broadly expect the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate at 4.25–4.50% at the upcoming policy meeting.
• India’s consumer inflation eased to 2.10% in June, with food prices contracting 1.06%, giving the RBI scope for further rate cuts.