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4d ago

U.S.-India Trade Deal Nears as Tariff Pause Looms

First-quarter GDP contracts 0.3% as businesses frontload imports ahead of sweeping Trump tariffs, sparking economic uncertainty.

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It's been a tumultuous few months for investors, consumers and businesses. And there is no sign the next several months will be calmer.

Overview

  • President Trump expressed optimism about finalizing a trade agreement with India, with officials targeting a fall 2025 signing before the 90-day tariff pause expires in July.
  • The U.S. economy experienced a 0.3% contraction in Q1 2025, driven by a 40% surge in imports as businesses raced to avoid impending tariffs.
  • GOP lawmakers and corporate leaders warn of economic instability, citing inflation risks, disrupted supply chains, and potential recession later this year.
  • Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts short-term economic pain but foresees AI-driven growth doubling U.S. potential GDP to 4% by 2030.
  • Trump downplayed the impact of tariffs on consumers, arguing they will reduce reliance on non-essential imports and strengthen U.S. manufacturing.