Overview

• Redfin data indicates that home-sale prices have declined in 11 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, led by Oakland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Austin and Seattle.
• There were approximately 500,000 more sellers than buyers last month, marking the largest supply gap since Redfin began tracking in 2013.
• Analysts forecast the national median sale price to remain flat in the third quarter before falling about 1% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2025, with Zillow projecting a 1.9% drop by year-end.
• Mortgage rates hovering around 7% are expected to persist and have prompted Citi Research to warn of a contraction in residential investment this quarter.
• Despite elevated borrowing costs, rising wages are projected to improve home affordability in the second half of the year.