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U.S. Housing Market Swings to Buyers as Prices Fall in Top Metro Areas

High mortgage rates near 7% have slowed buyer demand; sellers are responding with price cuts, concessions and negotiable commissions.

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Overview

  • Redfin data indicates that home-sale prices have declined in 11 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, led by Oakland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Austin and Seattle.
  • There were approximately 500,000 more sellers than buyers last month, marking the largest supply gap since Redfin began tracking in 2013.
  • Analysts forecast the national median sale price to remain flat in the third quarter before falling about 1% year over year by the fourth quarter of 2025, with Zillow projecting a 1.9% drop by year-end.
  • Mortgage rates hovering around 7% are expected to persist and have prompted Citi Research to warn of a contraction in residential investment this quarter.
  • Despite elevated borrowing costs, rising wages are projected to improve home affordability in the second half of the year.