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US Housing Market Shifts Toward Buyers as Price Growth Cools and Inventory Soars

Economists warn that widespread price declines could emerge by late 2025 with persistent high mortgage rates.

A home is seen for sale on April 24, 2025 in Austin, Texas. Home sales plummeted 5.9% in March, leading to the market's biggest decline since 2022.
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Overview

  • National home prices rose just 2.7% year-over-year in April, marking the smallest gain in nearly two years, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.
  • Redfin data show 11 of the 50 largest US metros saw year-over-year price declines in May, led by Oakland, Jacksonville and Dallas.
  • Active listings reached a five-year high in May, and the share of homes selling above list price dropped to 31.2%, the lowest rate for any May in five years.
  • Canceled purchase agreements hit a record 15% rate in May, and roughly 6% of sellers now risk selling below their original purchase prices.
  • High mortgage rates near 7% and stretched affordability continue to weigh on demand, prompting forecasts of a more selective market driven by local fundamentals.