Overview
- Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.15%, the year’s low, with 15-year loans at 5.44%.
- S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller shows October national prices up 1.4% year over year, with real values trailing inflation and sharp metro splits: Chicago up 5.8% versus Tampa down 4.2%, with Phoenix and Dallas also negative.
- Market activity is thawing as active listings run about 12% higher than a year ago and pending home sales rose 3.3% from October and 2.6% from a year earlier in November, according to NAR.
- First-time buyers remain squeezed: they accounted for roughly 21% of sales from July 2024 to June 2025, the median first-time buyer age is 40, and the typical down-payment saving timeline is about seven years.
- Forecasters see 2026 as a stabilization year with modest national price gains of roughly 1%–2.5% and mortgage rates staying mostly above 6%, while builders in some markets use price cuts and incentives to move new inventory.