Overview
- CoStar and Tourism Economics lowered 2025 occupancy to 62.3%, kept ADR growth at 0.8%, and now project RevPAR at −0.4%.
- The groups also trimmed 2026 expectations, cutting occupancy by 0.3 percentage points, ADR by 0.1, and RevPAR by 0.3.
- The projected 2025 RevPAR decline would be the first full-year drop in the U.S. since 2020 and 2009.
- GOPPAR forecasts were reduced as higher expenses in food and beverage, other operated departments, marketing, and utilities, plus slightly higher labor costs, squeeze profitability.
- Near-term demand faces drags from job-market softening, policy uncertainty, and tariff costs, while a moderate firming into 2026 is anticipated from household income gains, tax-cut effects, resumed hiring, and event-driven international travel such as the World Cup.