Overview
- Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Index rose 1.4% year over year in October, up slightly from 1.3% in September and among the weakest readings since mid-2023.
- Month to month, short-term momentum faded as 16 of 20 tracked cities fell before seasonal adjustment, while seasonally adjusted gains were modest at 0.4% nationally and 0.3% for the 10- and 20-city composites.
- Regional divergence widened, with Chicago (+5.8%), New York (+5.0%) and Cleveland (+4.1%) leading gains as Tampa (-4.2%) logged the steepest drop.
- Several former pandemic high-flyers turned negative, including Phoenix (-1.5%), Dallas (-1.5%) and Miami (-1.1%), reflecting a sharp geographic rotation.
- Economists expect mortgage rates to hover near current levels into 2026, suggesting only incremental affordability relief and regionally uneven price paths, while Detroit data remain delayed due to Wayne County recording issues.