Overview

• Markets now price near certainty of a 25‑basis‑point move at the Fed’s September 16–17 meeting, with some odds assigned to a larger cut.
• June payrolls were revised to a 13,000 loss—the first negative month since 2020—while July was nudged up to 79,000.
• Health care added about 31,000 jobs as manufacturing fell by roughly 12,000 and federal employment declined by around 15,000.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.7% year over year, with labor force participation edging up to about 62.3%.
• Treasury yields and the dollar fell and gold hit a record as scrutiny of BLS data intensified following the White House’s removal of the agency’s commissioner.