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U.S. Growth Slows Under Tariff Uncertainty as Fed Eyes Rate Cuts

Trade-policy uncertainty is stalling business spending nationwide

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Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during the Federal Reserve IF 75TH Anniversary Conference in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, DC, US, on Monday, June 2, 2025. US President Donald Trump pushed Powell to lower interest rates at their first in-person meeting since the president's inauguration last week, the White House said. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reports slight to moderate activity declines in half of its districts, with only three regions noting growth.
  • Elevated uncertainty over tariffs has led businesses to delay capital expenditures, adjust hiring plans and hesitate on new contracts.
  • Tariffs have pushed input costs higher, and many firms plan to pass these increases on to consumers by midyear.
  • Companies in several regions are reshoring operations or diversifying suppliers to mitigate the risks of unpredictable trade policies.
  • Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have kept rates unchanged since December and signal potential short-term rate cuts within the next 12 to 15 months.