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U.S. Growth Slows Under Tariff Uncertainty as Fed Eyes Rate Cuts

Trade-policy uncertainty is stalling business spending nationwide

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reports slight to moderate activity declines in half of its districts, with only three regions noting growth.
  • Elevated uncertainty over tariffs has led businesses to delay capital expenditures, adjust hiring plans and hesitate on new contracts.
  • Tariffs have pushed input costs higher, and many firms plan to pass these increases on to consumers by midyear.
  • Companies in several regions are reshoring operations or diversifying suppliers to mitigate the risks of unpredictable trade policies.
  • Fed officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, have kept rates unchanged since December and signal potential short-term rate cuts within the next 12 to 15 months.