Overview
- The BEA’s delayed report shows third‑quarter real GDP rose at a 4.3% annualized pace, reflecting activity from July through September after a 43‑day federal shutdown pushed releases back.
- Labor indicators point the other way, with unemployment around 4.6% and monthly job creation slipping to roughly 50,000, as even Fed officials caution recent payroll gains may be overstated.
- Economists say growth leaned on affluent consumers and corporate profits, with real disposable income flat and a notable share of spending going to services such as healthcare.
- Investment tied to artificial intelligence and automation is boosting output without proportional hiring, reinforcing what analysts describe as a structural decoupling of growth from jobs.
- Data gaps from the shutdown may have distorted inflation inputs and GDP, prompting warnings that figures could be revised in early 2026 and fueling disputes over the true pace of growth.