Overview

• DOE’s July assessment says most regions could face unacceptable reliability risks within five years, with modeled outages rising to more than 800 hours annually if current retirements and additions continue.
• EIA forecasts more than 1,100 new wind and solar facilities by 2030 and projects wind and solar will provide about 80% of new U.S. generating capacity through 2035.
• Critiques of common cost metrics argue that LCOE and legacy EIA assumptions understate intermittency, backup requirements, multi-day firming needs, and degradation in wind and solar output.
• A June heat dome highlighted operational limits at some solar plants, with Solargis reporting temperature-driven derating, aging inverter constraints, and real-time power prices spiking above $2,000 per MWh.
• Policy paths diverge: the administration has taken steps to support fossil generation as DOI halted work on the Revolution Wind project, while renewable advocates point to 12–18 month build times for wind, storage, and solar as the fastest capacity additions.