Overview

• The shutdown is in effect and is furloughing large numbers of federal workers as agencies curtail services across the government.
• Stocks closed at record highs on Wednesday, yet investors caution that a multi‑week closure, credit‑rating concerns, and new tariffs could sour sentiment and prompt portfolio shifts.
• Oxford Economics estimates growth could be reduced by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point per week, with a quarter‑long shutdown trimming fourth‑quarter GDP by 1.2 to 2.4 points.
• Delays to key releases, starting with the U.S. employment report, could leave the Fed leaning more on private data such as ADP, which showed the biggest private‑payroll drop in 2½ years.
• President Donald Trump has warned Democrats that the shutdown could lead to more job cuts, as investors note that past shutdowns tended to have modest market effects unless they dragged on.