Overview
- Real GDP rose at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, the fastest in two years and well above forecasts near 3.3%, the BEA’s initial estimate shows.
- BEA cited stronger consumer spending, exports and government outlays as drivers, with consumption up 3.5% and net trade boosted as exports climbed and imports fell; investment and inventories were a drag.
- The release was postponed by a 43‑day government shutdown that canceled October’s advance report, and the BEA plans an updated third‑quarter estimate on Jan. 22.
- Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in Q3, with PCE at 2.8% and core PCE at 2.9%, as the Fed cut rates in December but signaled caution pending clearer trends.
- Economists flag tariff‑related import swings and softer labor data—unemployment rose to 4.6% in November—while the CBO estimates the shutdown could trim fourth‑quarter growth by roughly 1 to 2 percentage points.