Overview
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 4.3% annualized real growth for Q3 2025, the fastest pace in two years and well above roughly 3% forecasts.
- Consumer spending accelerated to a 3.5% annualized rate, led by services such as health care and international travel, while exports rebounded 8.8%.
- PCE inflation ran at 2.8% headline and 2.9% core in the quarter, remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
- Treasury yields rose following the release, and CME FedWatch showed January rate‑cut odds near 13%, with equities seeing only modest moves.
- The GDP print was released late due to the recent government shutdown and is an advance estimate subject to revision, as President Trump attributed the strength to tariffs that face a Supreme Court challenge.